I recently came across an article in the Wall Street Journal
titled "U.S.
Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year."
This was an article someone I know posted on a different site and I made a
comment in response. But I've thought more and more about it since, especially
considering all of the geopolitical, military, maritime, etc., goings on in the
South China Sea, as well as the East China Sea among others, combined with
increased aggression by the PLAA and PLAN, particularly toward Japan and most
obviously Taiwan. Many experts feel that conflict of an unknown type is very
likely to occur this year over Taiwan and all of the events of the past months
have been leading toward that, supporting that theory.
However, I wanted to throw a few words out there on this,
particularly one thought that may be quite relevant with the news the WSJ
uncovered and published last week.
So, the anti-PLA “porcupine” strategy rears its head once
again. In no way do I wish to diminish the importance of the revelation of the
possibility/probability U.S. troops have been on Taiwan for at least a year as
all involved parties seem to be racing faster and faster toward a seemingly
inevitable confrontation of
potentially indescribable proportions. I think few have viewed that eventual
likelihood as a “limited engagement.” I’ve closely been following events in the
region since Nixon/Kissinger’s “reopening” of China, have studied &
researched regional history dating back thousands of years, have spent decades
studying China from 1900 - present & the future. I’ve
been engaging with experts, writing, speaking, debating on related topics this
entire century. It’s been impossible to ignore the years of analyzing the
unsaid mixed with the spoken now somehow transition to more apparently overt beating
war drums this year with more openly stated and less cryptic comments. On the
parts of multiple entities. I haven’t hidden my feelings on the regional/global
dangers China presents to the world, and certainly not merely the U.S. China
has already used its maritime aggression and military to encroach in sovereign waters and
airspace of most of its neighbors, literally attacking the Vietnamese and
Philippines, angling in that direction in Indonesia, harassing Japan
to such a degree that this has never been seen before, ignoring international
law AND their major loss in an international court when they tried to assert
they controlled the entire SCS so the USN has been conducting daily FONOP
operations throughout the SCS, now joined by the UK and soon Australia. Because
regardless of what China asserts, they're literally wrong and as an ambitious,
growing hegemony, they've been overstepping their boundaries with too many
states, resulting in the pushback being seen this year, including the
reformation of the Quad, the wooing of India to western democracies' sides, as
well as that of their S/SE Asian neighbors so that ideally they will be in a
position, of their own choosing, to ensure the Indian Ocean remains free of
conflict. Australia and Indonesia have renewed a defense agreement while the US
and Vietnam have signed one and the US is watching out for the Philippines.
South Korea just launched its first aircraft carrier, a likely needed
disincentive to China's program of having five carriers by 2025, at least two
to three of which are nuclear carriers. If memory serves me, the third one is
nearly complete and ready to set sail. Finally regarding Taiwan, Japan stated
as assertively as possible that they'll view a Chinese attack on Taiwan as an
attack on them and they're committed to Taiwan's defense. They were joined by
the U.S. in publicly committing itself to Taiwan's defense against an invading
China.
Now, all of that said,
I’ve not been eager to jump into any major brawl with the CCP, as unavoidable
as that may seem. Regardless, I wanted to mention a comment I saw floating
around somewhere in relation to this WSJ article. A thought to keep in
mind is that perhaps Taiwan may
be China’s Cuba. No big deal? The U.S. was willing to go nuclear to
keep Soviet missiles and troops off of and away from Cuba, OUR Taiwan (in terms
of proximity). And we don’t think China will stop at Nothing to ensure U.S. troops
and weapons aren’t
stationed just some miles from their shoreline? I’ve been thrilled to see the
U.S. encouraging Western and Eastern states to form defensive coalitions
in the area to discourage increasing Chinese aggression.
I'm not sure I’m as thrilled to potentially be goading the
biggest darn military in
the world, especially with its having just dumped its famous “No First Strike”
policy and building nukes like crazy, into a fit that might make them crazy
enough to take radical actions that few want. So many variables. Not enough
time to go into a fraction of them. But SOF in Taiwan? I doubt this is a
surprise to China, but now that it's public, I wouldn't be surprised to see
them pitch a calculated fit 100 times bigger than what we're used to. The
question I have is aside from their verbal protests, what tangible response is
to be expected?
